Polls to pot
A string of polls today makes interesting reading for the budding psephologist.
Firstly a Ipsos MORI poll for the FT suggests that Cameron is gradually losing support.
"David Cameron has suffered a sharp drop in public approval ratings since becoming the UK’s Conservative leader, mirroring the slide in popularity suffered by his predecessors who took the party to three successive general election defeats, an opinion poll for the FT has shown."
Jean Eaglesham - The Financial Times
The Times publishes its Populus poll which shows voters preferring a Brown premiership to a Cameron one by a substantial margin.
"Asked whom they [swing voters] would prefer to be the next prime minister, putting aside party preferences, 51 per cent opted for Mr Brown, and 24 per cent for Mr Cameron, with 17 per cent saying they favoured them both equally. More see Mr Brown as “strong” and as having more “substance”. The interviewees put the pair neck-and-neck on whether they understand ordinary life and have integrity."
The most interesting set of figures though comes from our cousins in IPPR. Their study "Freedom's Orphans: Raising Youth in a Changing World" which is not yet published, points out that Britons are far less likely to intervene in Anti-Social behaviour that our European neighbours.
"The study finds that 65% of Germans, 52% of Spanish and 50% of Italians would be willing to intervene if they saw a group of 14-year-old boys vandalising a bus shelter - but just 34% of Britons would be willing to do the same. Thirty-nine per cent of Britons would avoid a confrontation for fear of physical attack."
IPPR also say there is a direct relationship between the take-up of structured activities for young people and the likelihood to stay out of trouble. This surely has implications on our comments last week about the Safeguarding Vulnerable Groups Bill which will clear its remaining parliamentary stages today.
Lies, damn lies and opinion polls...
(http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2416848,00.html)
about what the polls are actually telling us.
If Brown and Cameron have been more equally matched in the polls (in terms of who people want for next PM) than we have been led to believe, then I wonder what the effect are of the earlier portrayal (and indeed today's - comparisons with Howard, IDS and Hague can hardly be helpful for Cameron) ?