Its the start of a new month, so time to check on the polls.

Anthony King provides some interesting analysis of the Telegraph's latest poll.  The headline figures show that the Conservatives are at 37% (-2) Labour are at 32 (no change) and the Lib Dems are on 16 (also no change).

The main spin the Telegraph puts on it is Cameron marooned; must do better.  This is certainly true if he is to have a hope of winning an overall majority.  But King delves deeper into the figures and pulls out some worrying news for the Lib Dems.

"...the Tories' new concern for the environment may be having a positive effect. It may be helping to change and improve the party's overall image and it may also be helping to woo wavering Liberal Democrats. YouGov at the moment is not only finding that fewer voters now back the Lib Dems than in the past but that an increasing proportion of those who do still back it are in general more favourably disposed towards the Tories than they
used to be."

The Telegraph 1st December 2006

This is particularly worrying for the many Lib Dem MPs with small majorities against the Tories.  It may well be that although the 'vote blue to go green' message has had little effect on Tory voters it has resonated with the more environmentally conscious Lib Dem voters.  If you ask the same voters that divide 37,32, 16 how they would vote given only the two larger parties to choose between, you get 43-34 split in favour of Cameron.

The key to Cameron's parliamentary majority seems buried in the liberal centre ground.  Can Menzies Campbell defend it or will the prospects of backing a determindely centrist David Cameron prove too much?