One week after the Iowa caucuses, a few days after the extraordinary primary in New Hampshire, and with a short break before the next contests, it seems appropriate to assess where the candidates are in the race. Lets rank them!

Republicans:

5. Fred Thompson. Thompson's chance of winning the nomination is, barring a miracle, over. But he retains a crucial role in the race, for two reasons. He keeps socially conservative supporters (who distrust McCain, Giuliani and Romney) away from Mike Huckabee, which may prove critical in South Carolina. Secondly, when he drops out, he is likely to back John McCain, providing him with a potentially significant endorsement.

4. Rudy Giuliani. Given that Giuliani is focusing his pre-Feb 5th resources on Florida, Giuliani got his wish from the opening states - two different winners, and the prospect of a third in Michigan. If Giuliani can win in Florida, he will jump into the lead in terms of delegates, and will be back in the top tier. But his prospects of doing so are looking increasingly thin - his decision to eschew campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire is starving him of media coverage, and the Republican debate seems largely to be being conducted without him. 

3. Mike Huckabee. South Carolina looks likely to make or break Huckabee's candidacy, confirming whether or not he is a 'one state wonder'. Huckabee is desperately trying to turn South Carolina into a two horse race between him and McCain, and if manages to win, he could leapfrog McCain into the top spot. Nonetheless, Thompson presents a large stumbling block, and John McCain has the momentum.

2. Mitt Romney. Romney's strategy was to win in Iowa and New Hampshire by outspending all the other candidates, and ride a wave of momentum all the way to the nomination. That strategy is now dead. But Romney remains well funded (by himself if necessary), and if he can pick up a win in Michigan (where his father was Governor) or, less likely, Nevada (with a large block of Mormon voters) he can sink enough money into adverts in the Feb 5th states to remain a factor in this race.

1. John McCain. Dead in the water 5 months ago, John McCain is now the front runner. But he needs to prove he can win in states where independents are not allowed to vote for him. South Carolina all but ended his campaign in 2000 (after some particularly unpleasant push polling by the campaign of then-governor George W Bush). Regardless of what happens this time, McCain will survive beyond South Carolina. Nonethelss, a victory would put clear water between him and Huckabee and would be a major step towards the nomination.

Democrats

3. John Edwards. It no longer looks like Edwards has any hope of winning - his money is running out, and while he won South Carolina in 2004, he doesn't look likely to repeat the feat this time around. With his supporters increasingly likely to drift towards Obama and Clinton (probably fairly evenly), Edwards looks likely to fade into insignificance unless he makes a bold move and endorses one of the other two candidates.

2. Hillary Clinton. Clinton stunned the political world with her victory in New Hampshire, and her message against Obama is now sharpened and more effective - turning an 'experience' vs 'change' battle which played to Obama's strengths to a 'fighting for change' vs 'hoping for change' battle which plays to Clinton's. Nonetheless, her organisation and fundraising remain (slightly) behind Obama's in the upcoming states. Second, it is hard to assess whether the huge turnout by women in New Hampshire, and her massive margin over Obama among that group, will prove to be an anomoly or a precursor of things to come. Until we know more, I still place Obama in the lead...

1. Barack Obama. He would have liked to have won in New Hampshire, but he remains the narrow favourite in South Carolina (where half the electorate is African American) and Nevada (where he has the support of the Culinary Workers Union - the largest union, and one with an impressive ground operation, in a state which typically produces very low turnouts). John Kerry's endorsement is also significant for Obama, giving him, if nothing else, access to the biggest email list in Democratic politics - 3 million strong. Kerry proved in the 2006 mid-terms that this list is a lucrative one which can be mobilised to raise serious money, potentially proving critical heading into Feb 5th. Among the most coveted endorsements, Wes Clark went for Clinton, and Kerry has gone for Obama. Al Gore and Ted Kennedy remain the two biggest names on the sidelines...