Michigan: the aftermath
After the Republican primary in Michigan last night, lets take a quick look at the race as it stands.
Mitt Romney's campaign is revived. He has now won a state (by a convincing margin) and has the resources to be competitive in the Feb. 5th states. Until then, he is likely to sit out South Carolina, and focus on Nevada and Florida with the aim of gaining some momentum (and perhaps a win) before a big push on Super Tuesday.
It is also good news for Rudy Giuliani. We've mentioned before that Giuliani's strategy of waiting until Florida to jump into the race was predicated on no one candidate gaining unstoppable momentum before the sunshine state votes on Jan. 29th. The first three states have now produced 3 different winners, potentially allowing Giuliani the opportunity to leap ahead of a crowded field.
South Carolina is now looking crucial for John McCain. He has just lost in a state he won in 2000, and could do with a victory in a state he lost in that year. He will survive even if he loses, but a South Carolina victory will dispel doubts about his ability to win when independents aren't able to vote, and ensure that New Hampshire doesn't become an anomoly. Similarly, South Carolina is looking like Mike Huckabee's best chance to gain some momentum before February 5th. If he doesn't, he will have gone a month since his Iowa victory with little good news, and will be hard pressed to have much impact.
The real beneficiaries of last night, however, may be the Democrats. It was no coincidence that liberal guru Markos Moulitsas was trying to get Democrats out to vote for Romney in Michigan - the longer and messier the Republican race, and the more money the candidates have to spend attacking each other rather than Democrats, the better for the Democrats. The dream scenario for the Democrats is a Republican race which goes all the way to the convention.
And lastly, in a multi-media extravaganza, here's why the democrats are favourite to win this election:
Mitt Romey claims he saw his father march with Martin Luther King. Turns out it depends on your definition of 'saw'. And here he is in a 1994 debate with Ted Kennedy, Romney gives his former views on abortion, Reagan, and struggles with a question about his greatest failing.
Here's Mike Huckabee being fooled into congratulating the Canadians on preserving their national igloo (though note his impressive weight loss since his days in Arkansas).
Lastly, here's Rudy Giuliani looking presidential with Donald Trump, and John McCain getting on board the 'straight talk express'.