In the aftermath of both parties' caucuses in Nevada, and the Republican primary in South Carolina, lets assess the state of the races.

Firstly, although Hillary Clinton won, this is not a major blow for Barack Obama. Due to the vagaries of the way in which delegates are assigned, he actually won more Nevada delegates than Clinton, and remains favourite to take South Carolina. He is ratcheting up his rhetoric effectively, yesterday accusing Bill Clinton of spreading misinformation about his record on the Iraq war and in the process highlighting voters' concerns about the role the former president is playing in his wife's campaign. If he can win in South Carolina, he will be in a healthy position going into Florida and on to Super Tuesday.

John Edwards, as predicted, seems to be fading into insignificance. He clearly wants to stay in the race until the convention, but his leverage as a kingmaker may be greatest if he withdraws now. If he is angling to be vice president, or (I think more likely) attorney general, he may be best served by getting out now.

On the Republican side, John McCain won a significant victory on the site of his most painful defeat eight years ago. But doubts remain. Among those identifying themselves as conservatives, McCain lost to Huckabee, 35 to 29 percent. McCain also lost Republican voters to Huckabee (Thompson and Romney took a combined 32 percent among Republicans). The Republican nominee will ultimately be chosen by rank-and-file Republicans: McCain has not yet demonstrated that he can win if the contest narrows to a one-on-one fight against someone attacking him from the right.

After his victory in Nevada, that someone looks most likely to be Mitt Romney. The political futures markets responded to his victory by putting him into second place for the first time since before the New Year. His personal wealth gives him a distinct advantage over the publicly funded McCain going into super Tuesday and he remains a factor in Florida. If Giuliani's vote continues to slide in Florida, Romney could yet secure a surprise win.

Two points of interest looking ahead towards November. Firstly, when McCain lost the 2000 South Carolina primary, he received 42 percent of the vote and around 237,000 votes. On Saturday McCain took 33 percent of the vote and 143,000 votes. This does not bode well for the Republicans in November. Secondly, both Clinton and Obama have been portraying themselves as the more electable candidate. The comments on this DailyKos diary  provide a very interesting discussion of the relative merits of each of their cases.