With Super Tuesday coming up tomorrow, here's a special Freethink preview of what to look out for, and predictions for what might happen. 

The first thing to say is that Super Tuesday is not make or break for Sen. Barack Obama. The states following up throughout February and March include some of his strongest - he is likely to do well in the Feb 9th states of Louisiana and Nebraska, the beltway states on Feb 12th, as well as his home state of Hawaii and Wisconsin, which borders Illinois - on Feb 19th. Looking further ahead, Texas on March 4th could also be a big (and delegate heavy) pick up for him. The momentum is with Obama: his national poll surge, prominent endorsements and astonishing fundraising, means that as long as he keeps Clinton in touching distance tomorrow, he remains in a strong position going forward. 

Secondly, polls in key races show that there are still sizable chunks of the democratic electorate who are undecided - primarily the supporters of the now departed John Edwards. Without an Edwards endorsement (and it seems at this stage that we won't get one), convention says that undecideds tend to plump for the challenger over the known quantity or the incumbent - in this case, favouring Obama. Nonetheless, Edwards drew his support from the same lower-income white demographics who might be expected to vote Clinton. In short, no-one really knows which way Edwards' voters will swing, but which they do could prove decisive...

So....My predictions!

Clinton will take New York and Arkansas comfortably for obvious reasons. The North-eastern states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts also look likely to stay in the Clinton column, along with all-white Oklahoma and Tennessee (given that the Memphis area is practically in Arkansas). However, a big night for Obama could see Massachusetts flipping his way, due to the large student population and the endorsements of both Senators and the Governor. The demographics of Arizona and New Mexico also favour Clinton unless Ted Kennedy's endorsement has led to a surge for Obama among Latino voters.  Although the latest polls show it neck and neck, I also think she'll take California narrowly on the basis of her lead in the state while the large numbers of postal votes were being submitted.

Obama will cruise to victory in Illinois, and take the Southern states with large African American populations: Alabama and Georgia. Polls suggest that Idaho and Kansas (with the endorsement of Gov. (and potential VP) Sebelius) will also go for Obama. Of the toss-up states, Delaware could go either way but Obama got a crowd of 20,000 there yesterday so I'm putting it in his column. I'm also going to give him Missouri, though it is likely to be very close, and a culturally Southern state with a small African American population may be troublesome for him. He'll also take a string of the smaller states: Alaska (where Mike Gravel might even pick up a delegate), Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota and Utah.

All of which would means both camps would pick up big wins, and much would depend on how the delegates fall out. But the upshot is likely to be that both candidates live to fight on, which, given how the race continue, is likely to be a net positive for Obama. 

Lastly, a mention for the Republicans. The latest polls show that McCain is consolidating his lead, and it will be tough for Mitt Romney to cut into it significantly while Mike Huckabee remains in the race. Further complicating Romney's efforts are the fact that of the three states he is likely to do best in - his home state of Massachusetts, anti-immigration Colorado and Mormon-heavy Utah - two allocate their delegates proportionally. In contrast, many of the states McCain is likely to do well in - Arizona, New York, California, Connecticut - allocate their delegates on a 'winner takes all' basis or by congressional district, giving a massive structural advantage to McCain. Although some prominent conservative pundits have come out strongly against McCain (Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and most bizarrely, Ann Coulter (click the link to watch a video of her saying she'll vote for Hillary Clinton over McCain)), it will take something astonishing to prevent McCain from all but wrapping up the nomination tomorrow night.

That's a wrap! Let's wait and see what happens...