Having successfully predicted the outcome in the democratic race in 19 out of the 20 Super Tuesday states (damn Connecticut!), it is time to a) gloat, and b) assess where the race now stands.

Tuesday was essentially a draw in the democratic race. Both campaign notched up significant victories in important states, and both were able to claim substantial points in their favour.

Looking forward, however, the race throughout the rest of February strongly favours Obama. On February 9th, Obama is a favourite in the heavily African American primary in Louisiana and the caucus in Nebraska - similar demographically to the caucus states he swept the board by large margins in on Tuesday. The final Feb 9th caucus, in Washington, favours Obama's superior ground operation and demographic (large African American population and well educated,  liberal middle classes). However, Clinton has the support of both the state's Senators and will go all out to avoid an Obama clean sweep. On Feb 10th, Clinton could pick up Maine, but the 5 states on Feb 12th and 19th all strongly favour Obama - whether by association (he was born in Hawaii, and Wisconsin neighbours Illinois) or demography (Washington DC and the potomac states have large black population). That Virginia is Clinton's best chance should concern her, given that Gov Kaine wants the VP spot on Obama's ticket and is going all out for him. It may not be until March, and the states of Ohio and Texas, that Clinton has a chance to win a significant state.

Clinton's problems could be compounded by the increasing fundraising gap between her and Obama. While Obama raked in almost $6 million in the 24 hours after Super Tuesday, Clinton was admitting that she had loaned her campaign $5 million last month, and that senior staffers were volunteering to go without pay. Clinton's fundraising strategy - getting people to give the maximum amount ($2,300) - was always more prone to max out than Obama's small donation powered fundraising, which has received a boost from the regular use of John Kerry's 3 million strong email list. This could prove problematic for her as she attempts to stay competitive in advertising during what could be a lean month.

On the Republican side, McCain won, but, again, did so without conservatives. An interesting statistic: McCain has got more than 37% of the vote in only 8 of the 29 states thus far.  Taking out Arizona—where he managed 47% (compared to the home-state totals of 64% for Obama, 60% for Huckabee, 57% for Clinton and 51% for Romney) -McCain has only received more than 37% of the vote are states that have voted Democratic in presidential elections going back at least to 1992. If McCain had been up against a single candidate last night - a Mitt Huckabee, so to speak - he could have been beaten. No wonder movement conservatives like Rush Limbaugh are spitting blood, and increasingly focusing their irritation on Mike Huckabee. McCain's difficulties with his base could prove problematic as he attempts to persuade them to part with their labour and money to fight against a hugely motivated democratic base in the general election.