Skip to content. Skip to navigation

FreeThink

Sections
Personal tools
You are here: Home The FreeThink Blog Archive 2008 February 11 Obamentum?

Obamentum?

by Mark Bell last modified Monday, 11 Feb, 2008 05:33
Filed Under:

Barack Obama had a good weekend, beating Hillary Clinton in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and the US Virgin Islands. He also found time to defeat a Clinton (though Bill, rather than Hillary) in the race for the 'Best Spoken Word' Grammy, for the audiobook of his bestselling memoir 'The Audacity of Hope'.

Although Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington were expected to fall into his camp, Maine is a North-Eastern and mainly white state which Clinton had hoped to win. She lost across the state. With five contests left in February, there is the very real possibility that Clinton may not win any of the post-Super Tuesday February states.

How significant is this?

Hillary is not likely to drop out any time soon. She replaced her campaign manager yesterday, and did not do so to oversee her withdrawal from the race. She has delegate heavy states which favour her demographically coming up early in March (Ohio and Texas). If she can win both of those she will probably be considered the front runner again. But, if, as looks increasingly likely, Obama wins all the states before March 5th, the media narrative could increasingly set those Ohio and Texas up as a Clinton firewall - if she were to lose them both (which at this stage still looks unlikely), she would face strong pressure to withdraw from the race.

The key for Obama will be to try and generate the momentum from his recent and upcoming victories to give himself a chance on March 5th. But it may also require a shift in his tactics and political positioning. An interesting article in today's Guardian notes the change in Obama's rhetoric on Saturday night. This suggests that he is already looking ahead to the March states and the need to peel away some of Clinton's voting blocs - low income White and latino voters, Catholics, and Women. As the article notes, whether or not he succeeds could well determine the outcome of the race.

Tag cloud
Think Tanks | Opinion Polls | Devolved power | Hunting | Housing | Early years | Internet politics | Middle East | The Centreground | Women in Politics | Trident | Leadership | Defections | Nick Clegg | French elections | Next General Election | Higher Education | Youth | Foreign Policy | Military | Localism | Public Service Reform | Planning | Britain After Blair | Libertarian | right-wingers | Commentariat | Left/Right | Prisons | John Reid | Home Office | Liberal philosophy | Licensing laws | Islam and the UK | Coalitions | Labour positioning | Local elections | Hung Parliament | Neocons | Population | Anti-social behaviour | Aspiration | Positioning | Budget | Mark Oaten | Journalists | Education | Brighton Conference 2006 | Prostitution | Constitutional reform | Welfare | Cameron | Welsh politics | Legislation | Environment | Short-termism | European politics | British identity | Drugs | Ming Campbell | Immigration | House of Lords | Iraq | Lib/Lab | Apathy | CentreForum | Lib Dem policy | Courts and the law | media ownership | Family | North/South | Rebellions | Michael Gove | Nuclear power | Child protection | American elections | David Miliband | Atlantic politics | London elections | Globalisation | Proportional Representation | Academies | Taxation | Zimbabwe | NHS | Spin | Blogging | Gordon Brown | Far right | General Election | personality politics | Inequality | Demography | Long term care | Scottish politics | Steve Webb | Lib/Con | Orange Book
Log in


Forgot your password?
New user?
Blog Roll
Liberal Review
Liberal England
Love and Liberty
Lib Dem Voice
Liberal Polemic
Alex Foster
Alan Beddow
Alex Wilcock
Anders Hanson
Andrew Garner
Andrew Lewin
Andy Mayer
Ann Garner
Blogging 4 Wycombe
Chris Black
Chris Jenkinson
Chris Jennings
David Morton
David Rundle
David Spender
Duncan Borrowman
Edis Bevan
Heather Quinton
Iain Sharpe
Ian Ridley
Jock Coats
John Hemming
Jonathan Calder
Liberal Democrat Voice
Linda Jack
Louise Alexander
Lynne Featherstone
Mark Young
Millennium Elephant
Ming Campbell
Nick Barlow
Peter Black
Peter McGrath
Peter Pigeon
Richard Baum
Richard Gadsden
Richard Thomas
Sajjad Karim
Simon Isledon
Stephen Glenn
Will Howells
Archives
Syndication
Atom
RDF
RSS 2.0
Powered by Quills