CentreForum director Alasdair Murray has written an article for Open Democracy responding to the recent reports of a 'brain drain' of educated graduates from the UK.

The money quote:

...the reality is that this trend is neither new nor alarming. The surge in skilled emigration has as much to do with the recent strength of the British economy - and especially the housing market - as it does with any political failings. Rising affluence combined with EU freedom of movement rules and the voracious appetite of other growing economies for skilled labour have liberated more British people than ever to choose where they want to live.

Read it in full here...

Last night proved another good one for Barack Obama, as he extended his winning streak over Hillary Clinton to 10 with victories in the Hawaii caucus and Wisconsin primary.

Hillary Clinton has now failed to win a single state since Super Tuesday, and her campaign now rests on the March 4th states of Ohio and Texas. Both states favour her demographically - but so did Wisconsin, where nearly six-in-ten voters were women; nine in ten were white; forty percent earned $50,000 or less; and 58 percent had no college degree. In each of those categories - key blocs in the Clinton coalition - Obama ran ahead or only marginally behind Clinton. Among women Clinton took 51 percent to 48 percent for Obama; among white voters he won 52 percent to 46 percent; among those earning less than $50,000 he won by seven points; and among those without a college degree Obama won 54 percent to 45 percent.

Is Clinton doomed? Absolutely not. Wins in both Texas and Ohio would breathe new life into her campaign. David Brooks in the New York Times senses a certain amount of Obama fatigue, while there are signs that the positive media that Obama has been receiving may be starting to wane - see here and here. It will be an interesting fortnight until March 4th...

I've written an article for comment is free, trying to make a liberal case for, well, liberalising our political advertising regulations. It's available here, see what you think...

Update: Jon Bright from Opendemocracy has written a response here.

Barack Obama had his best night of the campaign so far last night, trouncing Hillary Clinton in Maryland, Virginia, and DC. While Maryland and DC have long been known to favour Obama, Virginia was a state that Hillary Clinton had campaigned heavily in and, until the last minute, had hoped might swing her way. Obama won by almost 2-1: substantially more than Hillary Clinton won her home state of New York by on Super Tuesday.

Crucially, in the last post we wrote that Obama's success would depend on the extent to which he could peel support from those groups which Clinton had previously dominated. He did so in spectacular fashion last night. In Virginia, he won by 58 to 42 among women, 59 to 40 among those who make less than $50,000 per year, and 55 to 45 among Latinos. He narrowly lost the white vote to Clinton, 48 percent to 51 percent, but won the majority of white men in the state, 55 percent to 43 percent.

Hillary Clinton is now firmly on the defensive, and has been forced into a strategy disconcertingly similar to that adopted by Rudy Giuliani - sitting out the February states and waiting for Ohio and Texas on March 4th. The danger is obvious. Obama - with superior fundraising, a better ground operation, with a string of victories behind him and almost certain victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii coming up - will be able to gain the better media coverage and now has a good chance to pull out a close-fought victory in one or both of them. The departure of Clinton's Deputy Campaign Manager further adds to the sense that her campaign is in trouble.

We also, for the first time, saw that John McCain is now clearly preparing to face off against the Illinois senator in the November election. A new line appeared in his victory speech, clearly directed at Obama:

To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.

Nonetheless, McCain should feel worried. In Virginia, the Republican candidates combined to receive about 460,000 votes. Barack Obama alone took almost 620,000.  This is a staggering energy gap in a state which has not voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson's landslide over Barry Goldwater in 1964. With the high turnout likely to be generated by an almost certain win for the Democrats in the open Senate seat in 2008, Virginia is looking increasingly likely to be a swing state come November.

Barack Obama had a good weekend, beating Hillary Clinton in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and the US Virgin Islands. He also found time to defeat a Clinton (though Bill, rather than Hillary) in the race for the 'Best Spoken Word' Grammy, for the audiobook of his bestselling memoir 'The Audacity of Hope'.

Although Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington were expected to fall into his camp, Maine is a North-Eastern and mainly white state which Clinton had hoped to win. She lost across the state. With five contests left in February, there is the very real possibility that Clinton may not win any of the post-Super Tuesday February states.

How significant is this?

Hillary is not likely to drop out any time soon. She replaced her campaign manager yesterday, and did not do so to oversee her withdrawal from the race. She has delegate heavy states which favour her demographically coming up early in March (Ohio and Texas). If she can win both of those she will probably be considered the front runner again. But, if, as looks increasingly likely, Obama wins all the states before March 5th, the media narrative could increasingly set those Ohio and Texas up as a Clinton firewall - if she were to lose them both (which at this stage still looks unlikely), she would face strong pressure to withdraw from the race.

The key for Obama will be to try and generate the momentum from his recent and upcoming victories to give himself a chance on March 5th. But it may also require a shift in his tactics and political positioning. An interesting article in today's Guardian notes the change in Obama's rhetoric on Saturday night. This suggests that he is already looking ahead to the March states and the need to peel away some of Clinton's voting blocs - low income White and latino voters, Catholics, and Women. As the article notes, whether or not he succeeds could well determine the outcome of the race.

Having successfully predicted the outcome in the democratic race in 19 out of the 20 Super Tuesday states (damn Connecticut!), it is time to a) gloat, and b) assess where the race now stands.

Tuesday was essentially a draw in the democratic race. Both campaign notched up significant victories in important states, and both were able to claim substantial points in their favour.

Looking forward, however, the race throughout the rest of February strongly favours Obama. On February 9th, Obama is a favourite in the heavily African American primary in Louisiana and the caucus in Nebraska - similar demographically to the caucus states he swept the board by large margins in on Tuesday. The final Feb 9th caucus, in Washington, favours Obama's superior ground operation and demographic (large African American population and well educated,  liberal middle classes). However, Clinton has the support of both the state's Senators and will go all out to avoid an Obama clean sweep. On Feb 10th, Clinton could pick up Maine, but the 5 states on Feb 12th and 19th all strongly favour Obama - whether by association (he was born in Hawaii, and Wisconsin neighbours Illinois) or demography (Washington DC and the potomac states have large black population). That Virginia is Clinton's best chance should concern her, given that Gov Kaine wants the VP spot on Obama's ticket and is going all out for him. It may not be until March, and the states of Ohio and Texas, that Clinton has a chance to win a significant state.

Clinton's problems could be compounded by the increasing fundraising gap between her and Obama. While Obama raked in almost $6 million in the 24 hours after Super Tuesday, Clinton was admitting that she had loaned her campaign $5 million last month, and that senior staffers were volunteering to go without pay. Clinton's fundraising strategy - getting people to give the maximum amount ($2,300) - was always more prone to max out than Obama's small donation powered fundraising, which has received a boost from the regular use of John Kerry's 3 million strong email list. This could prove problematic for her as she attempts to stay competitive in advertising during what could be a lean month.

On the Republican side, McCain won, but, again, did so without conservatives. An interesting statistic: McCain has got more than 37% of the vote in only 8 of the 29 states thus far.  Taking out Arizona—where he managed 47% (compared to the home-state totals of 64% for Obama, 60% for Huckabee, 57% for Clinton and 51% for Romney) -McCain has only received more than 37% of the vote are states that have voted Democratic in presidential elections going back at least to 1992. If McCain had been up against a single candidate last night - a Mitt Huckabee, so to speak - he could have been beaten. No wonder movement conservatives like Rush Limbaugh are spitting blood, and increasingly focusing their irritation on Mike Huckabee. McCain's difficulties with his base could prove problematic as he attempts to persuade them to part with their labour and money to fight against a hugely motivated democratic base in the general election.

With Super Tuesday coming up tomorrow, here's a special Freethink preview of what to look out for, and predictions for what might happen. 

The first thing to say is that Super Tuesday is not make or break for Sen. Barack Obama. The states following up throughout February and March include some of his strongest - he is likely to do well in the Feb 9th states of Louisiana and Nebraska, the beltway states on Feb 12th, as well as his home state of Hawaii and Wisconsin, which borders Illinois - on Feb 19th. Looking further ahead, Texas on March 4th could also be a big (and delegate heavy) pick up for him. The momentum is with Obama: his national poll surge, prominent endorsements and astonishing fundraising, means that as long as he keeps Clinton in touching distance tomorrow, he remains in a strong position going forward. 

Secondly, polls in key races show that there are still sizable chunks of the democratic electorate who are undecided - primarily the supporters of the now departed John Edwards. Without an Edwards endorsement (and it seems at this stage that we won't get one), convention says that undecideds tend to plump for the challenger over the known quantity or the incumbent - in this case, favouring Obama. Nonetheless, Edwards drew his support from the same lower-income white demographics who might be expected to vote Clinton. In short, no-one really knows which way Edwards' voters will swing, but which they do could prove decisive...

So....My predictions!

Clinton will take New York and Arkansas comfortably for obvious reasons. The North-eastern states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts also look likely to stay in the Clinton column, along with all-white Oklahoma and Tennessee (given that the Memphis area is practically in Arkansas). However, a big night for Obama could see Massachusetts flipping his way, due to the large student population and the endorsements of both Senators and the Governor. The demographics of Arizona and New Mexico also favour Clinton unless Ted Kennedy's endorsement has led to a surge for Obama among Latino voters.  Although the latest polls show it neck and neck, I also think she'll take California narrowly on the basis of her lead in the state while the large numbers of postal votes were being submitted.

Obama will cruise to victory in Illinois, and take the Southern states with large African American populations: Alabama and Georgia. Polls suggest that Idaho and Kansas (with the endorsement of Gov. (and potential VP) Sebelius) will also go for Obama. Of the toss-up states, Delaware could go either way but Obama got a crowd of 20,000 there yesterday so I'm putting it in his column. I'm also going to give him Missouri, though it is likely to be very close, and a culturally Southern state with a small African American population may be troublesome for him. He'll also take a string of the smaller states: Alaska (where Mike Gravel might even pick up a delegate), Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota and Utah.

All of which would means both camps would pick up big wins, and much would depend on how the delegates fall out. But the upshot is likely to be that both candidates live to fight on, which, given how the race continue, is likely to be a net positive for Obama. 

Lastly, a mention for the Republicans. The latest polls show that McCain is consolidating his lead, and it will be tough for Mitt Romney to cut into it significantly while Mike Huckabee remains in the race. Further complicating Romney's efforts are the fact that of the three states he is likely to do best in - his home state of Massachusetts, anti-immigration Colorado and Mormon-heavy Utah - two allocate their delegates proportionally. In contrast, many of the states McCain is likely to do well in - Arizona, New York, California, Connecticut - allocate their delegates on a 'winner takes all' basis or by congressional district, giving a massive structural advantage to McCain. Although some prominent conservative pundits have come out strongly against McCain (Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and most bizarrely, Ann Coulter (click the link to watch a video of her saying she'll vote for Hillary Clinton over McCain)), it will take something astonishing to prevent McCain from all but wrapping up the nomination tomorrow night.

That's a wrap! Let's wait and see what happens...