Writing in yesterday's Independent, respected psephologist, John Curtice wrote:

"On its own one such poll could be dismissed as a "rogue". Statistical theory tells us that even a well-conducted poll will under- or overestimate a party's true standing by more than three points one time in 20. Just occasionally the error will be even bigger. Perhaps, it is YouGov's misfortune to have suffered such a fate." Labour slides in polls as Darling works his magic

He was writing about two opinion polls that appeared at the weekend that gave the Conservatives big leads. The Sunday Times published its YouGov poll which had the Conservatives on 43% (+3),  Labour 27% (-6), Lib Dem 16% (+/-0).  Meanwhile an ICM News of the World poll put the Tories on 40% (+3), Labour 31% (-3) and Lib Dems 20% (-1).

Today there is a new ICM poll in The Guardian. The raw figures put the Conservatives on 42%(+5), Labour on 29% (-5)and the Lib Dems on 21(+/-0) which give the Conservatives a 13 point lead and suggests that all the polls might well be accurate. Julian Glover, The Guardian's Chief Leader writer has penned a commentary:

"Today's poll suggests Alistair Darling's deliberately dull budget appears to have backfired. In late January, ICM found Labour retained a seven point lead as the best party on the economy. Now the Tories have an eight point lead. Asked which economic team they trust most, 40% of voters pick David Cameron and George Osborne and only 32% Brown and Darling." Economic fears drive Labour to 24-year low

If Labour are losing their economic brownie points now they will surely struggle in weeks and months to come if bad economic news starts effecting larger numbers of voters.

Also in today's papers:

Steve Richards gives his views on the evidence from recent polls - Labour needs to find a new narrative, and the Conservatives need to stick to the same story

David Aaronovitch dislikes the sneering at proposals for a national oath -  My oath to the land of No