As predicted, Pennsylvania went to Clinton by between 9 and 10 points last night, which leaves the democratic race, well, exactly where it was.

Obama has missed his third opportunity to knock Clinton out of the race (New Hampshire was the first, Ohio or Texas the second), but Clinton has yet again failed to significantly close the delegate (or, indeed, popular vote) deficit. Her campaign is in debt. Even if she secures 60-40 wins in all the remaining contests AND 60-40 wins in Michigan and Florida reruns which won't happen, Clinton would still go to the convention with fewer delegates than Obama. She can't win; he can't finish her off.

Obama will go to the convention having won more votes, more delegates, and more states. Although superdelegates may have concerns about Obama, Clinton's negatives have also significantly increased over the past few weeks of negative campaigning. And while Obama may no longer be putting together the impressive coalitions he built in winning states like Virginia in the heady days of February, he nonetheless did better among white men and low income voters than he did in Ohio.

Questions about Obama's ability to win among white working classes can be equally put against Clinton - why is she persistantly unable to win among black and upscale liberal voters - equally critical parts of the democratic coalition? The bottom line is that even if the superdelegates have concerns about Obama's electability, those concerns ought to be outweighed by the damage a coup by superdelegate would do to the party. This article has the best analysis. In the absence of a scandal which blows apart the Obama campaign, I see no scenario by which Clinton gets the nomination.

Anyway, the contest now moves on to May 6th, when more delegates than were at stake in Pennsylvania will be up for grabs. Obama is almost certain to win in North Carolina, but Indiana is perhaps the last interesting state - one that could go either way. Clinton has the support of the popular democratic senator, former governor and presidential candidate, Evan Bayh, but polls show the two candidates are neck and neck, and Obama has a lot more money to spend. Should be interesting...