The sketch writers love it when a political party feels really brave and decides to head for Blackpool.  Today its Matthew Engel's turn to rubbish the ailing resort ('Star turns fail to dispel general air of tat and decline').  There will no doubt be others in the week ahead.

However, If you read the Telegraph today things are going gloriously.

The leader column is full of positive statements - "There is ammunition a-plenty to campaign with here, whenever the election is called" it says.  "[David Cameron] is emerging as a strong leader under pressure." Followed up by the understatement of the year - "The prospect of an early election is clearly concentrating Tory minds wonderfully." ('A welcome flash of fire from the Conservatives')

However, for those less convinced that Cameron is on his way to Downing Street,  Tim Hames seems to be more on the money.  He writes today

"it is not as bad as it looks for the Tories. It is substantially worse." ('The road to Blackpool, via Punxsutawney')

Hames' diagnosis is convincing and worth reading in detail.

Time will tell whether it is he, or The Telegraph give a more accurate picture of Tory fortunes in the weeks ahead.

However, the most intriguing piece of the day is the John Bercow in The Independent ('A retreat to old comfort zones would spell failure').  In it he sets out his vision of what the Tories need to do over the next week .  He urges Cameron to go further and faster. 

Specifically, he says he is looking for Cameron to :

• reject tax cuts;
• continue to reject Grammar schools
• reject id cards
• invest in rehabilitation, rather than longer sentences for prisoners and (amazingly)
• raise the minimum wage.

This is quite a tall order - especially when he adds near the end "At our best, Conservatives are internationalists".

In today's big tent politics it would not be surprising if Bercow's piece was actually a prelude to the much vaunted Bercow defection. 

Brown's ideal start to his first General Election as PM is surely another Tory defector joining his ranks.

David Cameron hasn't had a good few days.

[The Conservatives] are not serious about wanting power... They just haven't done the work. And they're still not doing it. For instance: the new text for the coming EU conference. Cameron says it's the Constitution by another name. But has he read it? Has he compared it with the Constitution line by line? Has he - or his researchers - got a list of copy-and-paste similarities to make the case? (Brown's admirers mistake pure dullness for honesty)

...says Simon Carr in The Independent

"The Tories, he said, were back on the same old agenda - anti-Europe, pro-tax cuts, for grammar schools, etc. "The wheels are falling off the Tory bicycle. It is just as well that he has a car following him when he is out on his rounds." Like all Gordon's gags, it sounded pre-scripted, but it didn't matter." ("An end of term squitting")

...says Simon Hoggart in The Guardian. 

Hoggart also had words of praise for Menzies Campbell, but he doesn't get as effusive as Andrew Gimson in The Telegraph:

It was left to Sir Menzies Campbell to defend our ancient liberties with proper passion. He reminded us that far from making us safer, internment can fan the flames of extremism, and he asked why we need more repressive laws than Australia. Many people cannot see the point of Sir Menzies, but his point is to uphold liberty against a control-freak prime minister at the head of an overmighty state. ('Why we need Ming Campbell')

For a more analytical account of Cameron's problems you can turn to Philip Webster's piece in The Times ('Bad luck and tactical blunders set the Tories whispering again')

What is striking is how Cameron is now under attack from the left and the right.  Steve Richards in The Independent says Cameron is being too ideological ('David Cameron is not doing badly, but where is his party's hunger for power?') whilst Simon Heffer rips into him for being too shallow. ('Bogged down beyond the comfort zone')

We might find Quentin Davies' defection both amusing and illogical - but lots of people are fed up with the Cameron project and are looking for serious political debate. Yesterday, Campbell seemed more than able to provide that.

"If the relationship between the new and former Prime Minister were a Shakespearean play the drama would end with Mr Blair's resignation at the palace. Various blood-spattered bodies would lie across the stage. Instead Mr Brown appeared at the Palace minutes later and some of those bodies hope to be resurrected today. The play continues."

So says Steve Richard's in today's Independent and so it is ('Gordon Brown starts off stronger than anyone expected'). Unfortunately, as we have merely arrived at the interval, not the final curtain, the journalists are all petrified of making predictions that are too bold today, for fear that they will be eating their words tomorrow.

Yes, there are rumours about more defections ('More defections to come, brags top aide'); some Cabinet positions are known (see the BBC for announcements as they happen) but today is a day for instant reaction, not the dead-tree press.

Just a quick throwback to the Quentin Davies from The Telegraph then...

The paper did its best to ignore the story yesterday.  Perversely, by dedicating so much coverage in today's edition the paper is spinning out the 15 minutes of fame that yesterday it suggested he would get.  They have a je ne regret rien piece about Davies ('The Conservative Party has gone crazy, says unapologetic Davies') A leader which reprimands Cameron for not being more attentive to his backbenchers ('What Tories must do') And a collection of quotes from Quentin Davies' back catalogue about Gordon Brown ('Quentin on Gordon') 

We'll see what the pack make of today's announcements when they come through later today.

If you're the kind of person that is deeply suspicious of David Cameron, today's papers make entertaining reading. 

Three commentators in The Times argue very different viewpoints:

• Danny Finkelstein outlines a highly convoluted argument to prove that Quentin Davies' defection is nothing to worry about ('Advice from a chimp')
  
• More convincing is Alice Miles expresses her incredulity that, given his record, QD can find a home in the Labour party. However, she tries a little too hard and her suggestion that this is a spectacular own goal by Brown is over the top ('First day, first humiliation for Mr Brown')
• Peter Riddell hits the nail right on the head when he says:

"Quentin Davies will be lucky to have as much as 24 hours of fame. But what a 24 hours!"

The Independent is in agreement ('A twist of the knife') whilst The Guardian pushes too far the other way ('A devastating defection')

The Telegraph does its best to ignore the story altogether - it's not mentioned on their websites home page (though it is bulleted on the front page of the print edition), nor is it a big enough story to warrant any mentions in its leaders.  However, like many other papers, it prints the correspondence between Davies and Cameron in full.  The comparisons with Douglas Howe are a little far fetched, but there are many good lines that one can imagine hitting the streets in Ealing, Sedgefield and other potential by-elections over the next few weeks (Hull East, Streatham, Hamilton North and any other by election rumours doing the rounds at the moment)

The Brown vs Cameron match has certainly started.

Also in today's news

• If the advance of celebrity politics worries you, you won't be pleased about yesterday's meeting of Tony Blair and Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Both are feeding off the characteristics that one personifies and the other lacks.  Simon Hoggart identifies the important characteristics of the meeting ('Hasta la vista, Tony')
• Ming Campbell gives an interview to The Times ('My age is a benefit, not a problem')