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Dealing with debt: lessons from abroad

Written by Rosie Shimell

Tuesday, 03 November 2009 17:55

Since its pre-recession peak in the first quarter of 2008, the UK economy has shrunk by a total of 5.6 per cent. As the tax take has shrivelled and unemployment benefits have surged, the budget deficit now stands at £175 billion. Unemployment now stands at 2.47 million.

Rumours are circulating that Alasdair Darling is going to announce a further fiscal stimulus in the Pre-Budget Report, which is due in the next month. This would put a vast gulf between the Tories and Labour. George Osborne says the Conservatives will start to make cuts in 2010 if they win the election – and Brown and Darling may be about to stake their chips on an economic strategy to borrow more, and cut later. Will the debt markets allow it?

Other countries have been through this experience before. On the 12th November, CentreForum is holding a one-day conference, where speakers from Canada, Sweden, Ireland and Australia will give UK MPs, journalists and policy wonks some advice.

•   David Herle, political advisor to finance minister Paul Martin in the 1990s, on how to bring ministers, trade unions, local government and voters on board with spending cuts.
•   Pär Nuder, ex-Swedish finance minister, on how the Social Democrats dealt with their banking crisis in the 1990s: the party’s efforts to save the Swedish model of public services and tackle unemployment could be a model for Labour to follow.
•   Prof Colm McCarthy¸ of University College Dublin and one of Ireland’s foremost commentators on the crash, will discuss how Ireland performed cuts for growth in the 1990s – and how the next round of fiscal tightening is being put together, after their property and financial bubble burst in 2008.
•   Dr Chris Aulich of the University of Canberra will discuss John Howard’s privatisations and public services reforms in Australia, which cut the state’s share of the economy from 37.7 per cent to 33.2 per cent of GDP between 1996 and 2007.

Other speakers include: Gemma Tetlow (Institute for Fiscal Studies), Andrew Tyrie MP, Sally Keeble MP, Lord Newby, Julian McCrae (Institute for Government), Warwick Lightfoot (former SPAD to Chancellors Lawson, Major and Lamont), Christopher Cook (economics leader writer, Financial Times), Marnix van Rij (Tax policy partner, Ernst and Young), Prof Nick Bosanquet (Imperial College) and David Walker (Audit Commission).

The conference will take place between 9 am and 3.15 pm on Thursday 12 November, at 45 Millbank. It is sponsored by Ernst and Young and the Canadian Foreign Ministry.

If you would like to come, please email This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 03 November 2009 18:14 )

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