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| Written by Giles Wilkes |
| Thursday, 16 April 2009 09:08 |
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The FT’s series on ‘shrinking the state’ – which kicked off yesterday with a broad review of various political goals that will be put on ice – produces a surprisingly kind account of improvements in public services under Labour: “Across large swaths of the public sector, ministers can point to improvements. Benefits claimants no longer have to brave local offices that were often dirty, linoleum-lined halls with chairs screwed to the floor and staff cowering behind glass screens. Jobcentres, while undoubtedly under pressure, no longer rely on tatty rows of cards advertising a few local jobs. These days they offer online jobsearch, claiming by telephone, far better contacts with employers and a service that does a much better, if far from perfect, job of integrating work search and benefits.” It is worth being reminded of this. Yes, Brown has left us with a big structural deficit – if not a world-beating debt, a distinction Vince is heroically keen to explain to Daily Mail readers - but it was with an end in mind – 21st century public services. That is what his ‘fixing the roof boast’ last September meant. What he was not allowed to claim was that he managed this feat while keeping the UK on a sustainable fiscal path, a point central to our piece on fiscal policy. The sustained period of high investment means it will take a lot longer for public services to decay to the condition they were in during the late 1990’s. It will need to start strong, because the period of fiscal consolidation we face in the next decade will be way more challenging than the 1980’s: with borrowing set to hit £175bn for two years (FT), and no inflation expected to wipe it away, it will be much harder this time. You may be tired of reading pieces about what needs to be done about the financial system. Tough. Here is another list from a conclave of professors, including Doctor Doom. They are mostly mainstream, and slightly vague: give bankers the risk of a ‘malus’ as well as a bonus, prevent regulatory arbitrage, charge (somehow) for socialised risks, tax banks (somehow) for their systemic risks (how measured?), and push shadowy financial instruments onto exchanges. Should Goldman be allowed to repay its government money? John Gapper is aghast: “Goldman wants to bolt before Congress or Mr Geithner, who still operates as a one-man band while the nomination process for his senior staff meanders along, has the chance to change fundamentally how it operates . . . Goldman has plenty of capital and a cash pile of $164bn, which it keeps stuck in short-term Treasury bonds in case of future turmoil. Not only does it show no sign of being in danger any more, but it has abundant resources to exploit the weakness of others by buying distressed debt and discounted private equity stakes.” But here is a paradox. Don’t we WANT banks to be acting in this swashbuckling way – buying up illiquid securities, putting a floor under collapsing prices, taking risks again? Though I am astonished that they had to put aside $4.7bn last quarter for bonuses – did they really think their ‘stars’ were likely to leave voluntarily? – I tend to agree with Gillian (journalist of the year) Tett, that we need more risk takers right now. John Gapper doesn’t. I think most should enjoy Robert Reich's fierce polemic against right wing tax whingers.This is the most interesting question of the day. Do Asset Bubbles cause income inequality? The best piece is the longest and last. Willem Buiter corals his many thoughts on Banking into one long post. If you can take 2702 words, they are worth it. He has never sat on a fence in his life, and in this one piece details: - what he thinks should happen to unsecured creditors - his suspicions about the stress tests (shared by the FT’s leader) - the ease and great attractiveness of a ‘good bank’ solution - No bank should ever be too big to fail, ever. Economies of scale are a big illusion. - Chinese Walls work no better than the original Chinese Wall did in fighting off Genghis Khan - There is no such thing as ‘too interconnected to fail’ - Cross-border banking is going to take a big hit. Host, not home country supervision will take over.
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| Last Updated ( Thursday, 21 May 2009 16:17 ) |
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