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| The Queen is wrong |
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| Written by Giles Wilkes |
| Thursday, 06 August 2009 12:07 |
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My sentence of the day is from Lord Skidelsky:
Exactly - as I argued before, Her Majesty should order the decapitation of any economist who claims that some combination of improved technique, courage and moral stance could prevent or predict economic crises. Forecasts are not possible in dynamic systems. General rules - interest rates rise, consumption falls, that sort of thing - are possible, but "this structure will collapse in August" is not. Skidelsky argues that economics is a social science, and so
Although I think that is an unfortunate example. It should be pointed out that markets are no better at real prediction, though it takes some subtlety to realise why this is so despite large parts of efficient market hypothesis being true. Richard Thaler explains:
The no free lunch hypothesis is still working. The "price is right" bit is in deep trouble. I too get annoyed when people somehow see a miracle in French 'productivity'. If you stop the 3m least productive workers working, then you get good aggregate stats. This letter writer puts it well. Luke Johnson ranted about Britain returning to traditional virtues (which normally means "manufacture more", particularly when the article is being written by someone involved in services and finance, oddly). A letter writer puts him right.
I liked Robert Chote's explanation of the monetary and fiscal dynamics of the consolidation process that will start taking place once we are recovering. |
| Last Updated ( Thursday, 06 August 2009 12:20 ) |



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