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'Deficit denial' Darling describes danger of double dip downturn PDF Print E-mail
Written by Giles Wilkes   
Friday, 04 September 2009 15:15

A feast of depressing 'D' words in the Evening Standard

You probably know CentreForum's considered views on spending plans during the downturn.  Claims that Britain 'can't afford to keep on spending' ignore (a) the message from the markets, that the current levels of borrowing are just fine (b) the relatively high returns from deficit spending when there is considerable spare capacity (c) the low starting levels of debt in this country. Oh, and (d): the fact that redundancy pay etc means that the cashflow gain of cutting jobs etc does not come about for a few years (though the hit to confidence is instant). 

Read "A balancing act" for slightly more.

Osborne is siding with his allies, the Europeans (big state, anti-markets, you know, natural allies of the Tories) in trying to call for an end to the "global economic bailout" (the phrase comes from the Independent. When the government acts to stop unemployment heading to 10%, we are being 'bailed out'). The Independent carries an interview with him calling for the Europeans to quiet their talk of "exit strategies":

In a stark message aimed at Germany and France, which want the G20 leading nations to discuss "exit strategies" from measures to stimulate their economies, Mr Darling insisted that governments must carry on spending to ensure the global economy returns to sustainable growth next year.

"My view is that the biggest single risk to recovery is that people think the job is done," Mr Darling said in an interview with The Independent.

 He is surely right.  Markets are Forward Looking.  This means that if you talk about ending things in the near future, their current plans will adjust for this action, and the near future will not be the rosy place you want it to be.  As this excellent and comprehensive paper on Monetary Policy makes clear,  if you try to retain too much inflation-fighting credibility, then measures like QE are less likely to work: the major variable you are trying to wiggle around is the expectation of the populace. 

I will hopefully have a column on the G20 Finance ministers meeting at Forbes.com.   I expect a major angle to be how the Europeans are wasting a lot of time and political capital on the subject of Financial Market Bonuses (which, like Adrian Hamilton and Lord Turner, I don't think could have caused the crash). 

Repeat: High Leverage Caused The Financial Crisis. 

Last Updated ( Friday, 04 September 2009 15:50 )