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Written by Giles Wilkes

Thursday, 17 September 2009 15:19

Adam Posen's discussion of the sequencing of exit strategies - and how they need to be coordinated at the G20.

Credible commitments to medium-term fiscal consolidation should precede monetary tightening to pre-empt Volcker-Reagan policy mismatches, which drive up interest rates. The desired structure of the banking system has to be decided before tax policies are changed, since it plays a key role in revenue creation – but actual bank privatisation must wait until tax policies are clearly set, or else you end up driving away buyers.

It touches on a discussion I've been having with Anthony over on Freethinking Economist: how much should politicians talk about fiscal tightening and cuts? (and is Osborne a little daft to rely on exports filling the gap - he who was warning about a sterling crisis 9 months ago?)

More G20-focus: The Europeans really don't like the threatened capital rules. They think they will penalise the Europeans. Yes, it is always: what suits my bank? And their ability to act like Globalisation Friendly nonProtectionist Good World Leaders: how does that fit with what is happening at Opel?

The furore threatened member states’ commitment to the single market, analysts said and posed a serious challenge for José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, confirmed for a second term on Wednesday. There are concerns that restructuring at Opel will be driven by political rather than purely commercial considerations. The plans involve €4.5bn ($6.6bn, £4bn) in loans and credit guarantees mainly from the German governm

Lena is bang on the money about the risks of QE not doing what we want it to d:

The capital markets recovery of 2009 has reduced the need for emergency levels of public support in the financial system but it has not reduced the need to improve the economic effectiveness of liquidity. Rebuilding the liquidity arteries in the real economy remains a pre-condition for ending this crisis and ensuring a healthy and sustainable recovery into 2010. Without credit, global markets awash with liquidity will start looking bubbly. And an anaemic recovery coming through the floods of international central bank cash will morph into a liquidity trap. Japan is the country that comes to mind.

And William White offers a decent Austrian account of why letting financial institutions fail is the best course of action.

Scott Sumner is still convinced that central bank targeting NGDP could have prevented the slump. I am not, at all.

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Whether the upturn will last when restocking and government measures disappear is anybody's guess - personally I expect the automotive industry to fall off another cliff when scrap schemes are phased out.

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