Speakers

Nick Clegg MP, Sheffield Hallam

Susan Kramer MP, Richmond Park

Professor Paul Whiteley, Essex University

Introduced by Neil Sherlock, CentreForum

Professor Whiteley opened the meeting by noting that opinion polls during the 2005 election indicated that local campaigning is the Liberal Democrats’ ‘secret weapon’. There was substantial correlation between activism on the ground and Liberal Democrat votes. This contrasted with declining approval for the Tories as the campaign progressed, and comparatively little change in Labour’s polling. Voters’ impressions of leaders followed a similar trend.

Professor Whiteley noted that half the electorate no longer identify with one party, and that there are increasing numbers of ‘ultra-marginal’ seats. If there is a nationwide swing from the government of between three and twelve per cent, the result will be a hung parliament. He suggested that if the Liberal Democrats could use their resulting bargaining power to introduce electoral reform, this would ‘unlock’ the system and present an opportunity to change the political landscape.

Susan Kramer concentrated on three Liberal Democrat strengths: campaigning, policies and people. She argued a hung parliament is part of the political background, but not the party’s goal. Indeed, it means more to Labour and the Tories, who will have to adapt to the electoral arithmetic. By contrast, Liberal Democrats win seats by telling voters what they stand for, and running strong local campaigns, as was done in Dunfermline.

In Ms Kramer’s seat, the Conservatives ran a sophisticated marketing campaign, and she argued that the Liberal Democrats must combine their substantial local knowledge with some of these new tactics to succeed. She argued that Liberal Democrats must keep emphasising the gap between Cameron’s ‘liberal’ veneer and the reality of Tory policies on, for example, the environment. Lastly, she emphasised the commitment and quality of the party from its activists to the front bench.

Nick Clegg argued that David Cameron has serious weaknesses that will be exposed with time, and that he will carry his party with him only if he delivers votes and power. He suggested that the best strategy for Liberal Democrats was to point out that Cameron was all style and no substance.

However, Mr Clegg cautioned that the electorate has an instinctive emotional reaction to leaders, and that Cameron has high emotional intelligence. It therefore falls to Liberal Democrats to display their values and principles to voters, emphasising the party’s rigorous policies without getting bogged down in minutiae. To this end, it will be crucial to debate and develop a credible, consistent set of distinctive policies.